When Heyward is Ellsburys age, he will have just finished Year Six, or might have already opted out for another big contract. The team is heavy on left-handed hitting outfielders, with David Peralta locked in along with Jason Heyward fighting for a spot and top prospect James Outman on the cusp. Technically, the entire 1927 Yankees couldnt legally buy a beer, either. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, I then looked at age-25 performance and eliminated anyone who was not within two wins of Heywards six-win season this year. Theres very little fly-ball action in left field. by Handedness. For a big man, he can run a little Manager Dave Roberts indicated Taylor would spend 20 to 25 percent of the games there, in addition to his usual work in the outfield. His 23 percent infield/fly ball rate is third-highest in the majors, trailing only Corey Patterson and Mark Trumbo. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Im not going to worry about it.. by Handedness, Whos Been (Un)luckyThe Starting Pitchers. Hes hit 24 homers the last two years combined. And then well see if he wants to stay on the same course. Its not even clear this would be a good thing. Greatest Careers Through Age 25 Since World War II, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 30, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 35, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps Through Age 25, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps Through Age 26, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. FanSided 1 day Jason Heyward . FanGraphs Mugs. The above comparison paints an incredibly optimistic and rosy view of Heywards future, but there is some evidence to suggest that phenoms like Heyward age better than the rest of the population. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Every other player produced at an incredibly high level from age 26 to age 35, maintaining their hitting line from 26 to 35 that they had in their early 20s. Using a similar exercise, I found only 28 players with at least 25 fWAR and bWAR (FanGraphs WAR and Baseball Reference WAR, respectively) since the end of World War II. The shift movement had already produced some . Whatever the name, it might become a problem for them. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. However, if we want some sort of hybrid, we can look at the declines of the offensive comps and the defensive comps and combine them. ESPN rated the oufielder 11th in the system, Baseball America had him 12th, and The Athletic rated De Paula 18th. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Heyward and David Peralta, a pair of veteran left-handed hitters, could see time against right-handed pitchers. Now, Heyward has an extended history of making various adjustments underneath, he hasnt been that static. fangraphs.com 1d. Can you imagine what he would have batted if he had been in the Carolina League or the Pac-12 over the past couple of years? The Fans: .279/.378/.468, 21 HR. He homered off former Dodger Andrew Heaney in Wednesdays second inning. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman. Averaging out to a league average player for a total of ten years is a decent feat. Quite obviously, Im lukewarm on Heyward, and his upside might merit a few dollars more, but Id need to see him take a step forward before I start paying for him as a frontline fantasy cornerstone. Jason Heyward got more credit for his defense than Mike Trout, by our numbers. Heywards infield hit rate is three percent, which is in the same range as David Ortiz, Vladimir Guerrero and Billy Butler, guys whose times to first base are measured with sun dials instead of stop watches. To isolate players similar to Heyward, I looked for players from 1960 to 2007 within five of Heywards 27.8 WAR and within 20% of his 3429 plate appearances. After the home run, back in the zone with offspeed pitches. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. $8? Players are always free to change their minds about anything. Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Prediction: Road to the MLB 2023 Season. Hitters think about driving the ball in the air up the middle or to the pull side, and then when the contact isnt just right, a grounder gets yanked. The Dodgers announced Thursday that they've signed free-agent outfielder Jason Heyward to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training. The team appears content to begin the season with Trayce Thompson as the starter. Jason Heyward CF B/T: L/L 6' 5" 240LBS Age: 33 Draft: 2007 Rd: 1, #14, Atlanta Braves Henry County (GA) HS Player Apps Pitch Highlighter Player Similarity Shifts Swing Take Profile illustrator Zone Swing Profile Player Comparison Transaction History Show Random Video Stats Statcast Standard Splits Game Logs MLB Minors Batting Fielding Visuals Because it means Wheeler is now throwing a four-seam fastball, a sinker, a cutter, a tight slider, a bigger slider (aka the sweeper), a curveball and, occasionally, a changeup. Instead, Heywards dinger deficiency has been the byproduct of some ominous declines: Whats changed? Overall, the group still put up above average numbers offensively. That level of production would justify a $200 million contract based on the first five years alone. Over 55 combined seasons, the group averaged five wins per season. Jason Heyward opens baseball academy in Chicago from TrueBlueLA.com at 2/4/2023 5:04:00 AM. There are only four players ahead of him on both offense and defense: Evan Longoria, Johnny Bench, Barry Bonds, and Cal Ripken. Crawford is WAY ahead of simba according to pretty much every defensive metric this year. How many hitters (much less 21-year-old hitters) could manage a league-average batting line in the majors while injured and watching so many balls put in play gravitate toward gloves? Very obviously, he can sting a ball when he gets extended. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted If thats something hes really doing, its probably because hes trying to up his power output. But for now, we can revel in the fact that Jason Heyward, yeah he does a pretty good Mike Trout impression. While those deals might no look great now, age is a major factor. Going solely by offense, this group has a total bust rate of one in three. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. The WAR group, which constitutes the group most closely approximating the quality of the player Jason Heyward is currently, puts Heyward on a Hall of Fame track. by Handedness. According to FanGraphs, the 26-year-old was worth 6.0 fWAR (FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement) in '15the sixth most WAR among outfielders. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. It would be a tragedy if nagging injuries keep him from playing to his full potential. Rojas, a 34-year-old, glove-first veteran, was acquired in the winter to aid the groups depth. Contracts matter Miller is entering his first year of arbitration while Heyward is now a FA. Looking at the numbers from 26 to 30 in each group, it is understandable why Heywards agents would seek an opt-out clause within the first five years. Non-roster invitee Ronald Guzmn, who is in Giants camp as a two-way player, made his pitching debut in the ninth, surrendering a solo shot to P.J. Im sure you dont think about ground-ball pull rate very often, but I like it as an indicator of change. At the very least, we should expect Heywards average over the rest of the season to climb considerably. For instance, Heyward, batting primarily in the leadoff spot for the first time in his career, put up a solid .351 OBP, scored 74 runs and stole 20 bases at an impressive 83% success rate, all while batting .271, the second-best mark of his big league tenure. This group also aged incredibly well. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. UZRs range component agrees. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Ive pulled some images from Baseball Savant. Heyward is not Trout-level amazing, but he has been incredibly productive through his age-25 season. Interestingly, although Heyward swung less frequently than in any season since his 2010 debut, he finished with a 10.3% walk rate thats below his career average and set a new personal low for pitches per plate appearance. In fact, only teammate Michael Bourn managed more defensive value all around from the outfield. Tony Conigliaro was unfortunately never the same after a pitch permanently injured him, while other players like Ruben Sierra and Carlos Baerga simply did not produce despite opportunities. Sources - Fangraphs, Baseball Savant, MLB.com, Baseball Reference. Throw caution to the wind, even. Alan Trejo will likely move into the second base spot with Brendan Rodgers on the IL. He clobbered 27 homers when he was 22. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Freddie Freeman, and Jason Heyward . Heyward will get paid. Its hard not to fall in love with the fantasy potential of Jason Heyward, especially for those of us who cant forget the cant-miss hype surrounding his debut and a rookie season that seemed like the precursor to imminent superstardom. Jason Heyward. Thats baserunning without those gaudy stolen bases. Mike Trout represented, perhaps, a belief that we could quantify the other aspects of the game and assign them value. Trejo, 27, is fine with pushing for all the starts he can at second if thats his opportunity to be in the lineup. Andrew Heaney is fine with throwing meatballs. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted He made his MLB debut that night against the Washington Nationals as a replacement for Jason Heyward, going hitless in 3 at-bats. Again, the talent is too much to ignore, and the increased contact and stolen bases are encouraging signs for a guy who still has at least a season or two to go before truly entering what should be the peak years of his career. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Lets focus on Heyward and power for a minute, then. FanGraphs' Roster Resource has Adrian Sampson in the fifth spot in the rotation, but he has the ability to function as a long reliever/sixth starter if need be. Thats been fairly consistent. Heywards year wasnt in the same realm as Ott, Mantle or A-Rod, but he outdid Willie Mays, Hank Aaron (outside of the top 25 with a 103 OPS+) and Johnny Bench, among many others, and kept company with Junior Griffey. In 2022, Heyward will earn a base salary of $22,000,000, with a total salary of $24,500,000. by Handedness. Also keep in mind that ZiPS, Bill James and Oliver dont know that Heyward was taking cuts with a bad shoulder last year; they just see a young guy who struggled after a fantastic rookie year. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. De Paula hit .350/.448/.522 with 13 doubles, five home runs, and two triples in 53 games in the Dominican Summer League in his professional debut, and the power was intriguing enough that FanGraphs wasn't alone on an island. Watch as both teams attempt to take one step closer to . Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Theres no disputing that Heyward was frustrating to watch at times in 2011. Just how healthy is Heyward? Are the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders the result of his shoulder ailment, or normal growing pains for a player who wont turn 22 until August? His arm isnt great BIS had him costing the Braves three runs in that manner but his range was so impressive that he offered center-field like defense even once he was penalized for playing in the corner outfield. Games. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Thats why I want to make sure you understand Im not really concluding anything. With an injury (and a team deflation) taking some of the wind out of Stantons sails, and Buster Posey blowing up the National League Most Valuable Player debate, the new toys got a lot more attention than the old new ones. As in the case of the first table, we again see some of the greatest baseball players. While hes never going to be a big stolen base threat, hes a quality athlete for a power forward-sized corner outfielder. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors by Retrosheet. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. With a bad shoulder and back luck, he still held his own in 2011 Age plays a crucial rule in projecting a players long-term performance, and Heyward still has plenty of development time left before he reaches what are typically the peak years of a hitters career. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors But as long as were just having fun here, consider a few numbers. On June 3, Higgins recorded his first major league hit, . Heres a powerful triple to center. One of the hottest young prospects in baseball right now is Atlanta's Jason Heyward. So I was like, Im just gonna kind of throw it at him down the middle. And he hit it out. Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors FanGraphs projects San Diego as the . It doesnt matter that Heyward has still been productive; he looks like he should be a beast of a hitter, so its odd to see him hit singles and doubles. Looking solely at defense, these are the types of players who compare with Heyward. He has slugged eight homers in 599 plate appearances as a big leaguer. The Royals, Billy Butler, and Young Pitching. Additionally, Heyward had no say in November 2014, when his hometown Atlanta Braves, the club for whom he had foregone a full-ride scholarship to UCLA, traded him to the St. Louis Cardinals. For one thing, pitchers have shied away from trying to bust Heyward inside, and instead are focusing on trying to get him to chase pitches away. He has played in Major League Baseball (MLB) for the Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs. Phillies (24th, 1.4 WAR) With Bryce Harper undergoing Tommy John surgery and likely to miss the first half of the season, the spotlight is again on Nick Castellanos, whose performance in the first year of his five-year, $100 million deal was downright dreadful. Then, showing off the kind of speed unexpected from a 6-foot-5, 250-pounder, Walker beat out a dribbler to third for an infield single. His work has appeared in numerous publications, and he has contributed to the 2014 and 2015 editions of The Hardball Times Annual. As such, its hard to decide what to make of Heywards 2014 season, in which he finished 34th among outfielders in Zach Sanders rankings, as he made strides as a contact hitter while taking a step back in the power department. The first graph is conservative, beginning the estimation of a cost of a win at $7 million with inflation set at five percent per year (although salaries have been rising at a rate greater than that amount in recent seasons and are up about 50% from half a dozen seasons ago). Some call it a sweeper. Combining average power with a low strikeout rate (14.8% in 2015) and a solid walk rate (9.2%), Heywards wRC+ of 121 puts him in the upper third in terms of the leagues hitters. Now, just two years later, weve got Mike Trout and Bryce Harper one-upping them. We need your support to make FanGraphs sustainable so you can continue to enjoy all of the stats and tools you've come to rely on, like The Leaderboards. FanGraphs Shirts. Jason Heyward was a very good baseball player for a very long time. The other groups, with players similar to some aspect of Heywards game, but inferior in other ways, make Heyward a high-quality player, one perhaps worthy of a $200 million contract, but not a Hall of Famer. Service Time : Reported as the pre-2022 value. Apparently the Dodgers will do anything to keep James Outman on the farm. Just a couple years ago, it was Jason Heyward and Giancarlo Stanton that were tearing up baseball, looking like an unprecedented pair of rookie talents ready to continue on into the stratosphere together. Jason Heyward Positions: Rightfielder, Centerfielder and Leftfielder Bats: Left Throws: Left 6-5 , 240lb (196cm, 108kg) Born: August 9, 1989 (Age: 33-206d) in Ridgewood, NJ us More bio, uniform, draft, salary info 1x All-Star 2016 World Series 5x Gold Glove Wilson Overall Def Player 22 22 22 Become a Stathead & surf this site ad-free.
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