9 Battleground State Counties That Trump and Biden Need to Win - The Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. hide caption. Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). 'Forest defenders' begin week of action to block Atlanta police training center, Frogxit: Harry and Meghan get what they asked for, More Iranian schoolgirls fall ill, protests erupt, Russell Brand was challenged to give examples of MSNBC pushing misinformation (that was a BAD idea), Secretary of the Army Guarantees a Lot of Young Soldiers Will Die but Has the Right Thoughts and Feelings, California - Do Not Sell My Personal Information. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. Team up with others in your region, and help out by In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. Lets quickly recap what we have established so far: In this post we will further relax the constraint by analyzing counties that voted Democrat in 2008 and Republican in 2016 only; that is, the switch counties in the most recent elections. . For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? These counties arent the only ones that matter most swing states have a handful of critical counties, not just one or two but these 25 stand out, either for their voting history, population size or traditional impact on swing-state election results. Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? Thank you for supporting our journalism. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. Ottawa County wasn't the only swing county to get the outcome wrong this time around. That'sanother reason results of the contests might not have lined up. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. "The 2020 election was RIGGED.". Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. 4. Bonus points if you also keep track of the trends from 2016 to 2020. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. A county that voted for the winning party in 1992 (Democrat), 2000 (Republican), 2008 (Democrat) and 2016 (Republican), irrespective of how they voted at the other elections. We welcome any suggestions and content contibutions with credible references that help others understand the key election integrity issues. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). It almost became religious.". They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. The exurban county has seen a surge in minority voters in fact, non-Hispanic whites only constitute 62 percent of the vote, and thats made the area more competitive. Have information that relates to fraud in this election? "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington. "Especially considering there's a lot of things that has been done that don't get reported at all.". Just how big is it? Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney. If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised," they concluded. The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. That includes10elections, includingObama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. It's true that the report first showed Biden at 477 counties andTrump at 2,497 counties, though ithas since been updated to showBiden at 509 andTrump at 2,547. Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Abraham Lincoln High School on Jan. 31 in Des Moines, Iowa. His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. Go on, look them up! After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. Still, the state's worth watching. [Even Though Biden Won, Republicans Enjoyed The Largest Electoral College Edge In 70 Years. Election-Integrity.info provides over 25 thoroughly-researched, scientifically-approached reports. "I think people were pretty happy with some of the things he's done, what he's been able to accomplish," says Mark Coppeler, a leading local Republican who was re-elected county commissioner last month. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. Other counties to watch: Denver suburbs Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. There are 391 such counties. Feel free to forward a link to your elected officials as well. Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. US election results: Why the most accurate bellwether counties - BBC Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. Republican county chairman Michael Barnett said hed celebrate if Trump could do better than Romneys 41 percent total here in 2012. There are more than 3,000 counties in the United States, but in presidential elections they are not all created equal. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). (Needless to say that if the tables were reversed, we would hear no end of the significance of bellwether counties in the media.). In 2008, Obama received69,498,516 votes, per the Federal Election Commission. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. Whether or not these less diverse, industry-dependent communities can regain their bellwether status in four years' time remains to be seen. Demographics (84) In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. Arapahoe County. In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. It is easy to gloss over this. In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. Here are the concepts we have established so far: This is just the beginning. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. We relaxed the constraint by introducing the concept of a swing county, i.e. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania . "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. Want to dive deeper? In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . Once-reliably Republican -- and essential to Republicans to help overcome the deficit they face in Las Vegas Clark County -- Washoe voted twice for Bush and then twice for Obama. Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. 2016 election critical counties: Vigo, Indiana | CNN Politics Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. From 1980 through 2016, there were19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Republicans have paid some attention. Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black.
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